COLLEGELOGIC- TAKING THE LOGICAL APPROACH, NOT THE TYPICAL APPROACH
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    The College Shivot has Begun

    The College Shivot has Begun

    As each week passes, it gets one week closer to fall. I love the summer months, so I'm not in any rush for this to happen.

    I heard an interview yesterday from the President of a prominent University, he said- "We have no idea who's coming back in the fall. We doubt that international students will be able to return and we expect many students from out-of-state to not return."

    The Admissions Director of a top University said this week- "Our students left in the spring without clearing out their dorm rooms. We don't know what we'll have available for housing in the fall." 

    Texas A&M announced this week that they have full expectations to open campuses in the fall and to play football. They said, "Social distancing will be challenging in 100,000 seat stadiums."

    Forbes does an annual report on the financial health of private colleges. In their December 2019 study, they reported that 675 of 933 (72%) of private colleges are "tuition-dependent schools—meaning they squeak by year-after-year." 

    Enrollments are down. Freshmen no-show rates will skyrocket. Student-return rates will plummet. Endowment funds are shrinking.   

    The glass ceiling has been cracked. The College World is shivoting...yes, shivoting.

    What are the colleges to do?

    Some Public Universities have announced massive testing, tracing, and tracking procedures to be in place. That's a sizable advantage over private colleges not having those resources available.

    Many colleges are trimming study programs that carry significant costs but have little interest in students or relevance in this world today.

    Colleges have announced their concern for having to trim professional and support staff while reducing salaries of those retained. 

    And one big thing I've noticed for certain, colleges are suddenly much more responsive to your calls and emails. They are beginning to value you, the student-family, their customer who pays their bills.

    All told, this is a tremendous shivot. Oh, what's a shivot? It's my term for combining a shift with a pivot...shivot. Colleges are shifting their position and pivoting their business model...that's a shivot!

    I heard a top college official say this week that they recognize the need to lower costs and reduce pricing for making college more affordable. 

    A Harvard professor said that they can no longer charge Harvard prices for Univ. of Phoenix education.

    Over the next few years, I expect several colleges to shutter, some of the very ones being celebrated on FB in posts boasting of their child's college choice.

    I expect to see a lessor demand for private colleges  coupled with a greater demand for state universities.

    I expect to see the top-tier elite colleges continue in their ways as demand seems sufficient for sustaining their business model.

    I expect to see many middle-tier colleges become experts in offering streamlined job-specific education. 

    And I expect every college to become a Job Resource Center, converting wasteful expenses into valuable job-oriented resources.


    Making college accessible and affordable to mainstream America is a national priority.  

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    For discussing this further, schedule a call.

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    Your outcomes reflect the energy you attract!

    COLLEGELOGIC: OUR MISSION—YOUR OUTCOME

    Hans
    CollegeLogic
    Office # 203.470.3704

    PS. Are you interested in learning of the Top 6 Reasons People Overpay for College, let's talk.

     

    The College World on Tilt...a 5 Step Action Plan to Require of Colleges

    The College World on Tilt...a 5 Step Action Plan to Require of Colleges

    The College World on Tilt- A 5 Step Action Plan to Require of Colleges  

    The predictable behavior of college has shown itself in full force over the last week. It all started with Brown University President Paxson broadcasting to the country “reopening colleges in the fall should be a national priority.” To provide a simple translation, what she is saying is- America, it is in your interest to allow us to continue in our golden-goose business model, our luxurious lifestyles, our prestige perception, and our high salaries.

    Had she said it was their top priority, I would completely agree, but no, it’s not a national priority. You see, this is not a Covid-19 problem, rather it’s a problem that’s been caused by the very colleges themselves. Sure, Covid-19 has exposed the problem of colleges. What’s the problem?

    For the past 20 years, colleges have done some very good things, such as expanding the breadth of college majors, study-abroad opportunities, and research development. Our Colleges are among the best in the world at delivering and extending (oh my) education, but not at delivering jobs! Imagine the hypocrisy of having the number one weighted factor that goes into college rankings as the 6-year graduation rate! Why isn’t it based on four years?

    So, to begin with, college goals are not in alignment with student-family goals. That’s a serious business problem. Let us not forget, parents are the customer, the buyer. Colleges are the service provider, the seller.

    With that in mind, during the worst recession that we have personally experienced, colleges have managed to double their price. We now have thirty colleges or so approaching the $80,000/ year cost. We have twenty state universities with a cost of $60,000/ year for out-of-state students. The national average cost of state universities for in-state students approximates $30,000/ year…all paid for with after-tax dollars.

    Over the past five years, we’ve seen an overwhelming number of colleges convert their University Need-based Aid (the aid that does not have to be repaid) to student loans. I call this the Financialization of College. And they have the nerve to call loans financial aid as a way to trick the parents into buying what they have to sell, which is the Grand Illusion. They sell the illusion of grandeur, prestige, status, privilege, and obligation all designed to facilitate the emotional-purchase of a parent desperate to support their child at any cost.

    During this past 20 years, colleges have spent billions of dollars to build up the Grand Illusion. They have invested mightily in fabulous sports facilities, luxurious dorms, gourmet cafeterias, and overall campus beauty. In doing so, they have become completely reliant on parent’s willingness to pay their ever-increasing price. Herein lies the answer to the question- what is causing the college tilt?

    It’s not the coronavirus, rather, it’s the parent’s unwillingness to pay for the illusion any longer. It’s the shift in the mindset of parents who have been running scared of colleges for many years and all too willing to pay for the privilege of their association. As the summer of 2020 draws near, parents will take a stand against the college stance that everything will continue as normal, when in fact it’s not normal. Parents will not be willing to risk their family finance and retirement without greater assurance of achieving the end goal—JOB OPPORTUNITY.

    The college tilt worsens each passing week. College dorms, cafeterias, and classrooms sat empty for the last two months, but that doesn’t worry me. Most colleges received sizable stimulus-package payments to cover it. Texas A&M received nearly $40,000,000. Harvard, a college with a $50 Billion endowment fund received nearly $10,000,000 as if they needed a penny. Couldn’t this money have gone to the local restauranteur, gym owner, or hairstylist who’s been shut down for the same two months?

    Speaking of Harvard though, a prominent professor from there tweeted this week- “We can’t charge Harvard fees for a University of Phoenix education.” That’s refreshing to hear!

    Now that the standard deadline for enrollment passed, several hundred colleges have announced an extended period for which an accepted student can enroll. The colleges will posture it by saying they are doing us a favor by not imposing their deadlines upon us, the general public. Of course, that’s false. Rather, the only reason they would extend the enrollment deadline is due to not having sufficient enrollments.

    Colleges are trying their hardest to hold onto their golden-goose business model, to act as if everything will be back to normal in 3-4 months. Texas A&M just announced their plan to be open in the fall with their fill of students on campus and a plan to play football games in front of packed crowds.

    Texas A&M Athletic Director Bjork just said yesterday- “The social distancing in a 100,000-seat stadium ... that could be challenging,” Bjork thinks filling their College Station Football Stadium in four months will be challenging. How about impossible, irresponsible, and reckless?

    The college-tilt will continue in its downward spiral as we move through the summer and close in on the fall semester ahead. Their realization that freshmen enrollments are way down; the freshmen no-show rate will skyrocket; the student-return rate will plummet; and, international students may not have flights available. It’s all in the response of parents who want answers, assurances, solutions, and outcomes more now than ever before.

    What scares colleges the most is they don’t have a clear sense yet how strong the parent-fortitude is at this time.

    They have thrived on parents willing to give-in on this well-constructed perceived rite-of-passage known as college.

    Colleges will underestimate the new parent-fortitude!

    The colleges will spend more time dodging, defending, and deferring than planning, preparing, and adjusting. As a result, many known colleges may shutter in the next few years. The future existence and relevance of each college will depend on their immediate responses and decisions, which are lagging right now.

    A classic example comes from a northeastern college (I’ll protect the name) having 2,000 students; an application acceptance rate of 77% (very high) to go with an enrollment rate of 11% (very low); an endowment fund (their reserves) of $150M; and having just spent $140M on a new high-rise dorm with the prospect of low attendance ahead. How are they feeling right now?  

    Although I love college as it’s been my work and passion for these same 20 years, let’s not be mistaken here, colleges have it coming. The game they’ve known and loved will now change forever for the good of America’s youth.

    This is indeed a national matter of interest to the parents of young children who would’ve never been able to afford college otherwise. Hope is on the horizon for young families with the glass-ceiling of college cracked.

    If colleges are to resume operations in the fall, it will not be normal as they wish it to be, but rather, it will begin to reflect college-in-the-new-normal. It will reflect the time that parents take back the power-position and assert their interests as a marketplace of buyers, onto the colleges as a source of educational services. Parents are in control.

    Let’s start with the upcoming fall semester. For colleges to resume operations in the fall in a safe and affordable manner for their client-families and students, these are my 5 Step Actions of Parents to Require of Colleges.

    Step # 1- The 50 / 50 Rule 

    My rule calls for 50% of the students to study on campus in the fall while 50% remain at home for taking online classes. In the spring, it reverses. This rule provides every student with experiencing one semester on campus while studying online (off-campus) in the other semester.

    This will appease the students to some degree as they are now fearful of spending the entire next year at home… something of which the parents are also fearful. It also gives the colleges a stepping-stone year to prepare and plan for the new-normal college environment that lies ahead.

    To go along with this, colleges must provide a 50% tuition-rate discount to students for the semester they spend off-campus studying online. This has to become a non-negotiable outcome. Colleges will work very hard to deflect this eventual policy, but in the end analysis, it is fair and reasonable for both sides.

    Tuition rates must be capped for the next five years at a rate not to exceed the 2019 school-year rate. Parents have to insist upon this for safeguarding their own personal interests. It too is fair and reasonable for both sides.

    An unfortunate result is that international students will automatically default into the Spring semester for their on-campus studies. The necessary safety procedures for providing an isolation-style quarantine of students upon arriving from out-of-country cannot possibly be in place by August. Most international student-families will see this as a suitable alternative to taking a year off or studying online at home for the year.

    Step # 2- The Housing on-Campus Rule 

    With half the students studying on campus, the colleges should require all students to live in a dorm on campus.

    To go with this, the college must provide a free meal plan for all dorm residents.

    Room & Board rates need to be locked in and capped for five years based on the 2019 school-year rate.

    This rule serves twofold: one, it limits exposure to the outside elements by keeping the students better contained on campus; and two, the free meal plan is a necessary cost discount for appealing to the families.  

    Step # 3- Eliminating the “Non-Essential” 

    When you think of college, can you identify and draw a line between essential versus non-essential activities?

    I can. All education-related activities are essential. Therefore, by default non-educational activities are non-essential.

    For the fall semester, it is necessary to eliminate non-essential activities. Unfortunately, this includes canceling all college sport team activities, such as games, practices, and group meetings. This will help preserve social-distancing matters as you just can’t have the close contact that comes with sports. It also eliminates the unnecessary health-risk exposure of teams and fans traveling between colleges.

    In conjunction, visitors of the college need to be limited to people deemed to be "essential". This would limit visitors on campus to be either direct-family members or service-vendors. 

    To stick with the theme here, marketing mail is flooding student’s home mailboxes. It’s all generated upon a student’s SAT registration. Colleges buy the lists and begin with their mail. That’s a non-essential practice costing colleges millions of dollars each year without providing an ounce of educational benefit. It must come to an end. The money saved there would be much better utilized if spent on developing a Job-Resource Center…brilliant!

    Step # 4- A Testing Policy 

    This action-step calls for the mutual participation and commitment of colleges, parents, and students to form a responsibility-alliance. It requires the college to perform adequate testing and screening of everyone on campus while monitoring, restricting, and tracking activities both on and off-campus.

    There must be a unified understanding of responsibilities among the college, its students, and their parents. Each party must be able to rely on one another. Full compliance must be required by all involved.

    Students and parents will need to sign a “Responsibility, Compliance, and Acceptance” document complete with certain legal waivers designed to prevent class-action lawsuits.

    The testing-policy must include a consortium-arrangement among all colleges (by region) providing a collaborative effort for ensuring consistent application and full compliance among the various colleges.

    Absent of an effective testing-policy, colleges would subject themselves to becoming a community “hot-zone”.

    Should there be a Covid-19 breakout on campus, an entire community would be greatly affected. If this were to occur, massive lawsuits would follow. The only way to prevent this is to have a comprehensive testing policy accompanied by a signed document of “Responsibility, Compliance, and Acceptance.”

    Step # 5- A 5-Year Plan, a 3-phase approach

    Phase 1. College costs must be capped and restricted from further increases for five years. This will actually serve the college well to rid themselves of costs associated with non-essential activities and non-relevant programming.

    It will facilitate the eventual outcome no matter their immediate distaste for it.

    Phase 2. College degree-programs need to be streamlined by eliminating general-education and non-relevant courses. Some courses can be pushed back onto the high schools, some can be flatly eliminated. This plan has the potential of turning the traditional 4-year degree into a more-directed streamlined 3-year degree…saving parents thousands on college costs.

    Phase 3. Colleges need to develop career-specific degree programs that would act as a double Master of Science program. It would be a 3-year, 60-credit program with the middle-year used as a co-op job-training year.

    The outcome here is designed to turn colleges into job-resource centers converting non-essential expenses into job-essential activities. It will substantially decrease the cost of college to parents across America. It will deliver improved outcomes. And certainly, graduate-level programs can continue to exist.

    Overall, I’m not suggesting for a moment that colleges have any level of willingness to go down this path. But in typical Economic Supply & Demand fashion, businesses eventually have to comply with market demands if they are to remain in business. Just because colleges don’t pay taxes doesn’t mean they’re not a business. Rather, they are very big businesses who are masters at carrying out their business model often to the detriment of their consumers.

    It has now caught up to them. Their glass-ceiling has been cracked. The College World is in full tilt.

    I have polled dozens of parents who have all insisted that they will not pay full tuition in the fall for their child to be at home taking online classes. Colleges need to hear that message clear in order to compel their officials to make the right decisions in making college affordable and accessible to the general public once again. 

    In constructing this complete plan, I’m giving parents a framework to follow which they can use for taking appropriate action. Parents across America are united in their desire for this course of action to materialize. It is on every parent’s mind who has a child in college or preparing for college. It is of great interest to every parent with grade-school children and younger.

    Here’s my message to Brown University President Paxson- Making college accessible again to mainstream families across America is a national priority.  

    My 50 / 50 Rule for Getting Colleges Reopened

    My 50 / 50 Rule for Getting Colleges Reopened

    Colleges have BILLION$ at risk, along with their ongoing sustainability, riding on the decisions they make over the next several months. 

    Brown Univ. President Paxson just said- "Reopening colleges in the fall should be a national priority."

    I would've agreed had she said it was her top priority, but I disagree on it being a national priority.

    It's so consistent that colleges will always position their interests to sound like it's the public interests.

    But not so fast, big things have to change within the framework of the college business model before students can return safely and affordably to college. 


    This week in my College Clarity FB Group, I'll be rolling out my
    5 Step Action Plan for colleges to resume their business in the fall...join the Group.


    Step # 1- my 50 / 50 rule (3 parts)

    1- My rule calls for 50% of the students to study on campus in the fall while 50% remain at home for taking online classes. In the spring, it reverses. This rule provides every student with one semester on campus while studying online (off-campus) in the other semester.

    2- To go along with this, colleges must provide a 50% tuition-rate discount to students for the semester they spend off-campus studying online.

    3)
    Tuition rates must be frozen/ capped for five years not to exceed the 2019 school-year rate.

    International students will automatically default into the Spring semester for their on-campus studies. The necessary safety procedures for providing an isolation-style quarantine of students arriving from out-of-country will not be in place by August. 

    That's my Step 1 Action of the plan to get colleges running in the fall, reasonably and safely...stay tuned for the others!

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    The Show, the Glamour, the Prestige...POOF

    The Show, the Glamour, the Prestige...POOF

    Twenty years of massive investments have been made by colleges to build fabulous sports facilities, luxury dorms, and gourmet cafeteria's all for the purpose of the "Show"...to showcase its campus beauty to prospective student-families upon their visits.

    It has served to create the "Illusion" of its grandeur, the "Glamour" of its presence, and the "Prestige" of its association. 

    Along the way, it succeeded in drawing families into the emotional-commitment of a financial decision over that of a rational-commitment to protect one's best interest.

    The colleges have become increasingly reliant on families willing to take on exorbitant debt to finance the college's investment strategy.

    POOF...the year 2020 will go down in history as the year that blew up the illusion and changed it all.

    Dorm rooms, cafeteria's, sports fields all sit empty now. Student-return rates will be vastly lower come the fall no matter if campuses are opened up or not, no matter how fancy the dorms and cafeteria are, and no matter how beautiful the sports facilities look.

    Those items will no longer be the driver to college decisions. Rather, the quality and delivery of affordable college education combined with creating real-world job opportunities will be what earns a family's trust and decision to attend a college.

    The complete transformation of this will take ten years. Many colleges will shutter, others will prosper. We'll see who's on top of their game as things change going forward. College for a 7th grader today will look much different than it has up until now...welcome to
    The Roaring 20's!

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    Your outcomes reflect the energy you attract!

    COLLEGELOGIC: OUR MISSIONYOUR OUTCOME

    Hans
    CollegeLogic
    Office # 203.470.3704

    The One Big Difference from a Year Ago

    The One Big Difference from a Year Ago

    Obviously, the world feels much different to us all now than ever before. But in sticking to college, this April feels totally different in one very definable way than all previous April's.

    I've spent past April's talking people off the bankruptcy-cliff from accepting inflated college costs and taking excessive loans. This year, no one is getting within 500 feet of the bankruptcy-cliff. This April has been a month so far of helping people make the right decision.

    Previous April's have been fraught with parent's emotional-obligations to please their child. Every April has been filled with- I'll do whatever I have to do to make this work. My child deserves it. 

    Not this year, I haven't heard that once. Rather, what I hear repeatedly is the new emotional-obligation to preserve their finances with- Let's look at options, we need to protect our interests"...   

    The harsh reality is that families are faced with considering their dream college, or returning to college, may no longer be affordable. Thank goodness for options and we have options for you.